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                                                                                                                                                                          美高梅游戏:长城汽车:轻装上阵 只欠行业东风

                                                                                                                                                                          2019年05月12日 07:25 来源:亿利盛新闻网

                                                                                                                                                                            长城汽车(601633)

                                                                                                                                                                            投资要点

                                                                                                                                                                            事项:

                                                                                                                                                                            公司4月实现销量8.4万辆,同比+2.5%,1.4月累计销量36.8万辆,同比+8.7%。

                                                                                                                                                                            平安观点:

                                                                                                                                                                            4月销量受新能源需求拖累,但依然跑赢乘用车行业,WEY品牌份额预计大幅提高:公司4月实现批发销量8.4万辆,同比+2.5%,终端销量增速更高,预计达10%以上(行业-7%)。分车型来看,哈弗品牌在F7和M6加持下终端估计同比继续双位数增长;欧拉新能源环比略有拖累,主要是行业端过渡期内需求波动导致,但终端库存显著低于行业,预计6月份批发销量将恢复正常;WEY品牌占公司终端销量份额显著提高,4月份额估计为10%+(1Q份额7.9%),随WEY品牌5-6月N6智行版、N5倾橙版等技术大改款产品上市,将会进一步拉动WEY品牌销量+品牌定位,适时补充3-4Q销量缺口,同时可看到公司ASP+单车盈利同比提升。

                                                                                                                                                                            库存低轻装上阵、优惠幅度稳定可控:预计现阶段公司经销商库存在1.5-2个月之间,库存压力小,WEY品牌库存估计不到1.5个月,目前公司主力车型均会在5月份之前切换为国六标准生产,不存在国五车型库存积压问题。终端优惠方面,F系列终端优惠稳定,全新H6终端优惠略有缩减,整体上着优惠幅度稳定可控,营销节奏合拍且健康,公司自身消化吸收增值税减免并未让利终端,2Q单车盈利估计环比提高。

                                                                                                                                                                            短期看份额提升,长期看龙头潜力显著。公司体制改革+产品线梳理,2019年预计将持续跑赢行业,伴随行业复苏单车盈利在2-4Q将逐步向上。新能源欧拉品牌愈战愈勇,皮卡3Q新车上市打开份额提升之路,零部件公司拆分外供进展迅速,2020年新车产品力再上台阶,公司销量有望突破向上,估值打开提升空间,龙头潜力显著。

                                                                                                                                                                            盈利预测与投资建议:公司体制改革+多品类策略+新品周期正在逐步兑现,看好未来发展。维持业绩预测,预计2019-2021年EPS分别为0.69、0.99、1.20元,维持“推荐”评级。

                                                                                                                                                                            风险提示:1)乘用车市场不及预期风险,乘用车行业由于行业透支效应仍然存在,行业增速存在不及预期的风险。2)SUV竞争格局恶化风险,合资品牌SUV价格下探,车型密集推出,恐对自主品牌10-15万价格区间SUV造成压力。3)双积分不达标风险,公司新能源起步较晚,由于产品结构原因油耗积分达标压力较大,双积分存在不达标风险。